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Stocks pushed higher Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes recording their highest levels in more than a year, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to support the market consensus view that key interest rates have peaked. Powell said "tight monetary policy" was slowing economic activity, which traders chose to interpret as a signal that the Fed likely is done with rate hikes, even if the central bank hasn't explicitly said so. The Dow Jones index rallied 2.4%, the S&P 500 jumped 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.4%.

The latest reading on U.S. inflation in October puts the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates as continued jobless claims rise. Inflation, as measured by the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, was unchanged in October while easing to a 3% rate of increase year-over-year, according to a report Thursday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The pace of annual core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, slowed to 3.5% from a rise of 3.7% in the 12 months through September. Total PCE inflation in October was the slowest since March 2021, core inflation the slowest since April 2021, and core services excluding energy and housing the lowest since March 2021.

Meanwhile, continued jobless claims rose more than expected in mid-November, reaching the highest level in two years. The Federal-funds-futures market points to the Fed holding its benchmark rate at the current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% at its December policy meeting. Traders are currently pricing in potential rate cuts in the first half of next year.

Gross domestic product increased at a 5.2% annualized rate last quarter, revised up from the previously reported 4.9% pace, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its second estimate of third-quarter GDP. It was the fastest pace of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. The economy grew at a 2.1% pace in the April-June quarter and is expanding at a pace well above what Federal Reserve officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. The upward revision to growth reflected upgrades to business investment in structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Spending by state and local governments was also revised higher.

Growth in consumer spending, however, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was lowered to a still-solid 3.6% rate. The downgrade from the previously estimated 4.0% growth pace was because of cuts to outlays on financial services and insurance as well as used light trucks, likely the result of shortages caused by the recently ended United Auto Workers strike.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long-time confidant and business partner, passed away at 99 leaving behind a profound legacy in the financial world and beyond. Known for his wit and wisdom, the following quote sums up Mr. Munger’s direct and incisive style: “I think you would understand any presentation using the word EBITDA, if every time you saw that word you just substituted the phrase, ’bull---- earnings″ His accomplished lifework speaks to the power of a long-term mindset, exemplified by his quote that "understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things."

IndexYTD Total Returns
S&P 500 Index21.52%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11.68%
NASDAQ Index37.76%
S&P 400 Mid Cap Index9.69%
S&P 600 Small Cap Index5.86%
Russell 2000 Small Cap Index7.29%
MSCI All Country World ex-USA10.76%
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate (TR)2.51%

Returns are through | 12/01/2023